Teburin Abubuwan Ciki
41% Karɓar Hashrate Mafi Girma
Matsakaicin ƙaura na hashrate daga Ethereum zuwa sauran hanyoyin sadarwa na PoW
12% Hashrate da ake ci gaba da yi
Ragowar ƙarfin ma'adinai bayan watanni 5+ bayan Haɗuwa
87.7% Faɗuwar Riba
Ragewar ribar ma'adinai sosai
1. Gabatarwa
Haɗuwar Ethereum a ranar 15 ga Satumba, 2022, ta zama wani muhimmin lokaci a tarihin blockchain, inda aka canza hanyar sadarwa daga hanyar yarda ta proof-of-work (PoW) zuwa proof-of-stake (PoS). Wannan canji na asali ya sa kayan aikin ma'adinai na musamman suka zama marasa amfani ga Ethereum, wanda ya tilasta wa masu ma'adinai su sake amfani da kayan aikinsu ko kuma su fice daga masana'antar gaba ɗaya. Bincikenmu ya nuna gaskiya mai tsanani: yayin da mutane da yawa suka yi bikin ceton makamashi nan take, ainihin ƙaurar hashrate ta ba da labari mai sarƙaƙiya game da daidaita tattalin arziki da kuma ci gaba da aikin kayayyakin more rayuwa na PoW.
2. Hanyar Aiki
2.1 Tsarin Tattara Bayanai
Mun aiwatar da cikakken tsarin tattara bayanai wanda ke bin ka'idojin blockchain, bayanan kasuwa, da ayyukan ma'adinai a cikin manyan cryptocurrencies na PoW masu wuyar ƙwaƙwalwa. Bincikenmu na dogon lokaci ya kai watanni 6 kafin Haɗuwa zuwa fiye da watanni 5 bayan Haɗuwa, inda ya ɗauki cikakken lokacin canji.
2.2 Daidaita Hashrate
Don ba da damar kwatanta hanyoyin sadarwa daban-daban, mun ƙirƙira tsarin daidaitawa ta amfani da ma'auni na aikin GPU. Ta hanyar tattara bayanan aiki na ainihi a cikin algorithms daban-daban na ma'adinai (Ethash, Etchash, KawPow), mun ƙirƙiri ma'aunin hashrate ɗaya wanda aka bayyana a daidai MH/s.
3. Sakamakon Gwaji
3.1 Tsarin Ƙaurar Hashrate
Bayanai sun nuna babban ƙaura na hashrate na farko wanda ya biyo baya da haɗakarwa mai mahimmanci. A cikin mako na farko bayan Haɗuwa, mun lura da karɓar koli na kashi 41% na tsohon hashrate na Ethereum yana ƙaura zuwa madadin hanyoyin sadarwa na PoW. Duk da haka, wannan cikin sauri ya haɗu zuwa wani matakin da ake ci gaba da yi na kashi 12% da suka rage aiki bayan fiye da watanni 5.
3.2 Nazarin Riba
Ribar ma'adinai ta fuskanci faɗuwar bala'i na kashi 87.7% bayan Haɗuwa. Ana iya ƙirƙira aikin riba kamar haka:
$P(t) = R(t) \times P_{coin} - C_{electricity} - C_{hardware}$
Inda $R(t)$ ke wakiltar ladan block a lokacin $t$, $P_{coin}$ shine farashin tsabar kuɗi, kuma $C$ yana wakiltar farashi. Babban rugujewar riba yana nuna tasirin cika sheka na ƙaura masu ma'adinan Ethereum da suka mamaye ƙananan hanyoyin sadarwa na PoW.
3.3 Rarraba Tafkin Ma'adinai
Abin mamaki, rarraba tafkin ma'adinai ya kasance a kwanciyar hankali duk da babban kwararar hashrate. Manyan tafkuna kamar Ethermine da F2Pool sun yi nasarar canja ayyukansu zuwa madadin sarƙoƙi ciki har da Ethereum PoW da Ethereum Fair, suna kiyaye matsayinsu na kasuwa yayin da ƙananan tafkuna suka haɗu.
4. Tsarin Fasaha
4.1 Tsarin Tattalin Arzikin Ma'adinai
Mun ƙirƙira cikakken tsarin tattalin arzikin ma'adinai wanda ke nazarin maki masu daidaita kuɗi ga masu ma'adinan GPU. Samfurin ya haɗa da:
- Lankwilan ingancin kayan aiki
- Bambance-bambancen farashin wutar lantarki ($0.05-$0.15/kWh)
- Gyaran wahalar hanyar sadarwa
- Canjin farashin kasuwa
4.2 Nazarin Amfani da Makamashi
Sabanin da'awar rage amfani da makamashi kai tsaye na kashi 99.95%, bincikenmu ya nuna ci gaba da amfani da makamashi daga masu ma'adinai da suka ƙaura. Kashi 12% na hashrate da ake ci gaba da yi yana wakiltar kusan TWh 2.5-3.5 / shekara na ci gaba da amfani da makamashi - daidai da wata matsakaiciyar birni.
Hangen Nesa na Manazarcin: Gaskiyar da ba a faɗa ba game da Haɗuwa
Zurfin Fahimta
Haɗuwar Ethereum ta haifar da babban tsunami na hashrate wanda ya sake fasalin yanayin PoW gaba ɗaya, amma labarin ceton muhalli nan take yana da sauƙi mai haɗari. Gaskiyar ita ce, kashi 41% na ƙarfin ma'adinan Ethereum sun nemi sabbin gidaje da gaske, kuma kashi 12% sun same su - wanda ya haifar da alamar ci gaba da amfani da makamashi wanda masana'antar ke yin watsi da su cikin sauƙi.
Tsarin Ma'ana
Sarkar abubuwan da suka faru sun bi ka'idojin tattalin arziki da ake iya hasasawa: babban jarin jari (GPUs da ASICs) ba kawai yana ɓacewa lokacin da riba ta ragu ba. Masu ma'adinai da hankali sun bi madadin hanyoyin samun kudaden shiga, suna mamaye ƙananan hanyoyin sadarwa na PoW kuma suna haifar da yanayin wadata na al'ada. Wannan ya sa riba ta ragu da kashi 87.7%, amma kayan aikin sun kasance aiki saboda ɓarnatar da kuɗi yana haifar da ƙwaƙƙwaran ƙarfafa don ci gaba da haƙo ma'adinai ko da a kan riba kaɗan.
Ƙarfi & Kurakurai
Ƙarfin binciken yana cikin bayanansa na zahiri na dogon lokaci - bin diddigin ainihin ƙaurar hashrate maimakon samfuran ka'idoji. Duk da haka, yana raina tasirin muhalli na biyu: sharar lantarki daga kayan aikin ma'adinai da aka daina aiki da kuma alamar carbon na kera maye GPUs na mabukaci. Kamar yadda aka lura a cikin Fihirisar Amfani da Wutar Lantarki na Bitcoin, cikakken nazarin rayuwar kayan aikin ma'adinai yana nuna ƙarin farashin muhalli bayan amfani da wutar lantarki kai tsaye.
Abubuwan Fahimta masu Aiki
Masu tsari da mahalarta masana'antu dole ne su gane cewa sauye-sauyen PoW suna haifar da tasiri, ba tsage-tsage ba. Ya kamata ƙaurar blockchain na gaba ya haɗa da tsare-tsaren sake amfani da kayan aiki da kuma kimanta tasirin muhalli wanda ke lissafin ƙarfin ma'adinai da aka ƙaura. Farfadowar sarkar samar da GPU na masana'antar wasan yana ba da misalin bincike mai kama - kamar yadda aka rubuta a cikin rahoton kwata na NVIDIA, daidaitawar kasuwar GPU bayan Haɗuwa ya ɗauki watanni 6-9, ba gyaran nan take da mutane da yawa suka zata ba.
Misalin Tsarin Nazari
Samfurin Kimanta Ribar Ma'adinai
Masu Canji na Shigarwa:
- Hashrate hanyar sadarwa $H_{net}$
- Hashrate na mutum ɗaya $H_{ind}$
- Ladan block $R$
- Farashin wutar lantarki $C_e$
- Ingancin kayan aiki $E$ (MH/J)
Lissafin Riba:
$P_{daily} = \frac{H_{ind}}{H_{net}} \times R \times P_{price} - (\frac{H_{ind}}{E} \times 24 \times C_e)$
Nazarin Daidaita Kuɗi: Wannan tsarin yana ba masu ma'adinai damar lissafin mafi ƙarancin farashin tsabar kuɗi da ake buƙata don biyan kuɗin aiki, kayan aiki mai mahimmanci na yanke shawara yayin sauye-sauyen hanyar sadarwa.
5. Ayyuka na Gaba
Yanayin bayan Haɗuwa yana nuna wasu abubuwan da ke tasowa da alkiblolin gaba:
- Samfurori na Haɗin Kan Yardawa: Haɗa abubuwan PoW da PoS don daidaita tsaro da ingancin makamashi
- Sake Amfani da Kayan Aiki: Haɓaka aikace-aikace na GPUs na ma'adinai da suka ritaya a cikin horarwar AI da lissafin kimiyya
- Algorithms na Wahala Mai Sauƙi: Aiwatar da ƙarin hanyoyin daidaita wahala masu amsawa don gudanar da saurin canje-canjen hashrate
- Ka'idojin Ma'adinai na Ketare-Sarkar: Ƙirƙirar daidaitattun musaya don sauƙin ƙaura na ma'adinai tsakanin hanyoyin sadarwa na PoW masu dacewa
6. Bayanan da aka ambata
- Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: Tsarin Kuɗin Lantarki na Peer-to-Peer
- Buterin, V. (2014). Ethereum: Dandalin Yarjejeniya mai hankali na Zamani da Dandalin Aikace-aikacen da ba na Tarayya ba
- Fihirisar Amfani da Wutar Lantarki na Cambridge Bitcoin (2023). Jami'ar Cambridge
- Baya, A. (2002). Hashcash - Maɓallin Magance Cutar da Sabis
- Zhu (2021). CycleGAN: Fassarar Hoto-zuwa-Hoto mara Biyu ta amfani da Cibiyoyin Adawa masu Daidaitaccen Zagaye. IEEE
- Kamfanin NVIDIA (2023). Rahoton Kudi na Q1 2023 da Nazarin Kasuwar GPU
- Digiconomist (2023). Fihirisar Amfani da Makamashi na Bitcoin
- Kididdigar Ma'adinan F2Pool (2022-2023). Bayanan rarraba hashrate na tarihi