Haɗin Kai Tsakanin Kudaden Hako Ma'adinai, Ladan Hako, da Tsaron Blockchain

1 Gabatarwa

Wannan takarda tana bincika muhimman haɗin kai na tattalin arziki a cikin tsarin Blockchain na Proof-of-Work (PoW). Ta nuna cewa kudin gudanar da blockchain (kudaden hako ma'adinai) yana da alaƙa ta cikin gida da kudin kare shi daga hare-hare. Babban tambayoyin binciken suna nazarin alaƙar tsakanin sakamakon kasuwar cryptocurrency (farashi), abubuwan ƙarfafa masu hako ma'adinai (ladan), da matakin tsaro na littafin lissafi mai rarrabawa.

Yanayin rashin amana na Blockchain na PoW ya dogara ne akan masu hako ma'adinai suna kashe albarkatun kwamfuta don tabbatar da ma'amaloli da ƙirƙirar sabbin tubalan. Abubuwan ƙarfafa su sun fi samun ƙarfafa ne ta hanyar ladan tubalan, wanda aka ƙididdige shi a cikin cryptocurrency na asali. Saboda haka, girgiza farashin kuɗin ƙasa na cryptocurrency yana tasiri kai tsaye kan ribar hako ma'adinai, kuma saboda haka, adadin ƙarfin hashing (don haka tsaro) da aka keɓe ga cibiyar sadarwa. Wannan yana haifar da yuwuwar madauki tsakanin kimanta kasuwa da tsaron cibiyar sadarwa.

2 Tsarin Ka'idar & Samun Daidaito

Marubutan sun ƙirƙiri samfuri na ka'ida don fitar da alaƙar daidaito tsakanin muhimman masu canji.

2.1 Tsarin Tattalin Arziki na Asali

Samfurin yana tunanin masu hako ma'adinai a matsayin masu aiki na hankali. Yarjejeniyar keɓance ƙarfin hashing $H_t$ zuwa takamaiman blockchain a lokacin $t$ aiki ne na ladan da ake tsammani $R_t$ (ladan tubalan + kuɗaɗen ma'amala, a cikin ƙimar kuɗin ƙasa) da kuma haɗin kai kudin $C_t$, wanda galibi ana motsa shi ta hanyar kashe wutar lantarki. A cikin daidaito, kudin gefe yayi daidai da ladan gefe: $MC(H_t) = MR(H_t)$.

2.2 Kudin Tsaro & Kudin Kai Hari

Ma'auni mai mahimmanci shine "kudin tsaro," wanda za'a iya wakilta shi ta hanyar jimlar ƙimar kuɗin ƙasa na ladan hako ma'adinai a kowace raka'a lokaci. Kudin kai hari na kashi 51% yana da alaƙa kai tsaye da wannan kudin. Samfurin yana nuna cewa rashin canza blockchain yana goyan bayan rashin yuwuwar tattalin arziki na samun isasshen ƙarfin hashing don mamaye cibiyar sadarwa mai gaskiya, wanda aiki ne na $R_t$ da kasuwar ƙimar hashing.

3 Hanyoyin Bincike & Bayanai

3.1 Hanyar Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)

Don gwada alaƙar ka'idar ta hanyar gwaji, takardar ta yi amfani da hanyar haɗin gwiwar Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). An zaɓi wannan hanyar saboda tana iya sarrafa masu canji tare da matakai daban-daban na haɗawa (misali, I(0) da I(1)) kuma tana ba da damar duk jerin blockchain da kasuwa masu dacewa (farashi, ƙimar hashing, wahala, kuɗaɗen ma'amala) a ɗauke su a matsayin masu yuwuwar cikin gida, suna ɗaukar rikitattun madaukai.

3.2 Tarin Bayanai (2014-2021)

Binciken yana amfani da bayanan yau da kullun daga 2014 zuwa 2021, yana rufe manyan cryptocurrencies na PoW kamar Bitcoin. Muhimman masu canji sun haɗa da:

Farashin Cryptocurrency (USD)
Ƙimar Hashing na Cibiyar Sadarwa
Wahalar Hako Ma'adinai
Ladan Hako (coinbase + kuɗaɗe)
Ƙididdigar Ma'amala/Kuɗaɗe

4 Sakamakon Gwaji & Bincike

4.1 Karfin Farashin-Tsaro

Sakamakon ya ba da ƙaƙƙarfan shaida ta gwaji cewa farashin cryptocurrency da ladan hako ma'adinai suna da alaƙa ta cikin gida da sakamakon tsaron blockchain. Girgiza mai kyau ga farashi yana haifar da ƙaruwa mai mahimmanci a ƙididdiga a cikin ƙimar hashing na cibiyar sadarwa (tsaro) tare da jinkiri, yana tabbatar da tsarin ƙarfafawa.

4.2 Ladan Hako vs. Karfin Kudade

Wani muhimmin binciken shine cewa karfin ladan hako ma'adinai dangane da tsaron cibiyar sadarwa ya fi karfin kudaden hako ma'adinai. Wannan yana nuna cewa masu hako ma'adinai sun fi amsa canje-canje a cikin yuwuwar kudaden shiga (ladan da farashi ke motsawa) fiye da canje-canje a cikin kudaden aiki (misali, sauye-sauyen farashin wutar lantarki) lokacin da suke yanke shawara kan keɓance ƙarfin hashing, aƙalla a cikin kewayon da aka lura.

4.3 Muhimman Binciken Kididdiga

Samfuran ARDL sun nuna daidaitattun alaƙa na dogon lokaci tsakanin masu canji. Sharuɗɗan gyara kuskure suna da mahimmanci, suna nuna cewa karkace daga daidaito (misali, ƙimar hashing ta yi ƙasa sosai don takamaiman matakin farashi) ana gyara su akan lokaci, suna goyan bayan tsarin daidaitawa mai motsi da aka bayyana a cikin samfurin ka'idar.

5 Tattaunawa & Abubuwan Da Ake Fahimta

5.1 Madauki na Tsaron Cibiyar Sadarwa

Binciken ya tabbatar da kasancewar madauki: Manyan farashin crypto → Manyan ladan hako ma'adinai na kuɗin ƙasa → Ƙaruwar hako ma'adinai/ƙimar hashing → Ingantaccen tsaro da ake ganin yana da tsaro → Ƙaruwar amfani da buƙata → Matsi na sama akan farashi. Wannan madauki shine babban mai motsa tattalin arzikin Blockchain na PoW amma kuma tushen yuwuwar rauni idan farashin ya ragu sosai.

5.2 Abubuwan Da Suka Shafi Bawancin Farashi

Takardar ta nuna waɗannan haɗin kai suna ba da gudummawa ga matsanancin bawancin dawowar cryptocurrency. Tsaro ba wani abu ne na waje, kafaffen dukiya ba, amma ana ƙaddara shi ta hanyar motsi da cikin gida ta hanyar ra'ayin kasuwa da tattalin arzikin masu hako ma'adinai, yana haifar da sabon mataki na haɗari ga masu saka hannun jari da masu amfani.

6 Ƙarshe & Bincike na Gaba

Binciken ya ƙare da cewa tsaron Blockchain na PoW ba kawai fasalin fasaha ba ne amma na tattalin arziki mai zurfi. Kudin hana hare-hare yana da alaƙa ta cikin gida da ladan hako ma'adinai na kasuwa. Bincike na gaba zai iya faɗaɗa wannan tsarin don nazarin tattalin arzikin tsaro na madadin hanyoyin yarjejeniya kamar Proof-of-Stake (PoS) da yadda kudaden tsaronsu suka yi daidai da masu canji daban-daban na kasuwa.

7 Bincike na Asali: Ra'ayi Mai Muhimmanci na Masana'antu

Fahimta ta Asali: Wannan takarda tana isar da gaskiya mai mahimmanci, amma sau da yawa ana yin watsi da ita: Tsaron Proof-of-Work wani abu ne da aka samo daga ra'ayin kasuwa. Ba a kiyaye shi da lissafi kaɗai ba, amma ta hanyar ƙarfafa tattalin arziki ga masu hako ma'adinai su zama masu gaskiya, wanda aka haɗa shi kai tsaye zuwa farashin kadarori mai tsananin canzawa. Marubutan sun tabbatar da abin da mutane da yawa a cikin masana'antu suke ji a hankali - ƙimar hashing tana bin farashi, ba akasin haka ba. Wannan yana juyar da labarin gama gari na "Bitcoin yana da tsaro saboda ƙarfin hashing dinsa" a kan kai; ya fi dacewa a ce "Ƙarfin hashing na Bitcoin yana da girma saboda farashinsa ya sa ya zama mai riba don zama mai tsaro." Wannan ya yi daidai da damuwar da masu bincike kamar Pagnotta (2018) suka taso game da yanayin tsaron blockchain na cikin gida.

Kwararar Hankali: Ƙarfin takardar shine tsantsar hankalinsa, dalilin dalili: Farashi → Ladan (a cikin kuɗin ƙasa) → Ƙarfafa Mai Hako Ma'adinai → Keɓance Ƙimar Hashing → Daidaiton Tsaro. Amfani da samfurin ARDL ya dace, kamar yadda aka tsara shi don sarrafa yanayin cikin gida, mai motsa madauki na waɗannan jerin lokutan. Ya yi wayo ya guje wa da'awar dalili guda ɗaya kuma a maimakon haka ya zana alaƙar daidaito, wanda shine madaidaicin hanya don tsarin daidaitawa mai rikitarwa kamar cibiyar sadarwar cryptocurrency.

Ƙarfi & Kurakurai: Babban ƙarfi shine samar da ingantaccen tabbaci na dogon lokaci (2014-2021) don samfurin ka'idar. Binciken game da karfin ladan ya wuce karfin kudade yana da zurfi; yana nuna masu hako ma'adinai su ne masu haɓaka riba da farko, kuma ƙwararrun ƙwararru na biyu. Duk da haka, aibi shine iyakance tattaunawa game da haɗarin "mutuwar karkace". Idan farashin ya faɗi sosai kuma ya ci gaba, samfurin yana nuna ƙimar hashing da tsaro za su ragu, yana iya rage amincewa da ƙara rage farashi - zagaye mara kyau. Takardar ta taɓa batun bawancin amma ba ta cika fuskantar wannan raunin tsarin ba, wani batu da Bankin Kasashen Duniya ya bincika. Bugu da ƙari, binciken na baya ne ta asali; bai ƙirƙiri tasirin girgiza na gaba kamar rabin Bitcoin ko rikicin farashin makamashi na duniya ba.

Fahimta Mai Aiki: Ga masu saka hannun jari, wannan binciken umarni ne don bincika kudaden tsaro (jimlar ƙimar kuɗin ƙasa na ladan tubalan) a matsayin ma'auni mai mahimmanci, ba kawai ƙimar hashing a sarari ba. Sarkar mai babban ƙarfin hashing amma ƙananan, raguwar kudin tsaro yana da yuwuwar haɗari. Ga masu haɓakawa da masu ƙira ƙa'idodi, yana jaddada alaƙar da ba za a iya sasantawa ba tsakanin tokenomics da tsaro. Duk wani canji ga fitarwa (rabin) ko yanayin kasuwar kuɗaɗe dole ne a ƙirƙira shi don tasirin tsaro na mataki na biyu. Ga masu tsara dokoki, yana nuna cewa kai hari ga tattalin arziki (misali, ta hanyar dokokin makamashi) na iya tasiri kai tsaye ga tsaron waɗannan hanyoyin sadarwa, takobi mai kaifi biyu wanda ke buƙatar kulawa mai kyau.

8 Cikakkun Bayanai na Fasaha & Tsarin Lissafi

Ana iya wakiltar daidaiton asali ta hanyar sauƙaƙa aikin ribar mai hako ma'adinai:

$\Pi_t = \frac{H_t}{H_{total,t}} \cdot R_t - C(H_t)$

Inda:

$\Pi_t$: Ribar a lokacin $t$.
$H_t$: Ƙimar hashing da mai hako ma'adinai ɗaya ya bayar.
$H_{total,t}$: Jimlar ƙimar hashing na cibiyar sadarwa.
$R_t$: Jimlar ladan tubalan na kuɗin ƙasa = $P_t \cdot (B + F_t)$, tare da $P_t$ a matsayin farashin crypto, $B$ a matsayin tallafin tubalan da aka kayyade, da $F_t$ a matsayin kuɗaɗe.
$C(H_t)$: Aikin kudi, yawanci $C(H_t) = \gamma \cdot E \cdot H_t$, inda $\gamma$ shine kudin makamashi a kowace raka'a kuma $E$ shine ingancin makamashi (Joules/hash).

Ana yin samfurin tsaro akan kai hari na kashi 51% ta hanyar kudin samun mafi yawan ƙarfin hashing. Sauƙaƙan kusantar shine cewa kudin kai hari $AC_t$ yana daidai da kudin tsaro akan taga lokaci $\tau$: $AC_t \propto \sum_{i=t-\tau}^{t} R_i$. Samfurin ARDL na takardar yana gwada haɗin gwiwa tsakanin $P_t$, $H_{total,t}$, da $R_t$.

9 Sakamakon Gwaji & Bayanin Zane-zane

Hoto na 2 (Ra'ayi): Zanen Madauki. Taswirar kwarara da ke nuna haɗin kai mai motsi: "Girgiza Farashin Cryptocurrency" yana haifar da "Canji a cikin Ladan Hako Ma'adinai (Kudin Ƙasa)" wanda ke tasiri "Ƙarfafa Mai Hako Ma'adinai & Keɓance Ƙimar Hashing," yana haifar da "Canji a cikin Tsaron Blockchain da Ake Gani." Wannan sai ya rinjayi "Buƙatar Mai Amfani & Daidaitawa na Fayil," yana amfani da matsi na sama ko ƙasa akan "Farashin Cryptocurrency," yana rufe madauki.

Hoto na 3 (Gwaji): Jerin Lokaci & Zane-zanen Haɗin Kai. Mai yuwuwa ya ƙunshi bangarori da yawa: (a) Haɗin gwiwar farashin Bitcoin (ma'aunin log) da ƙimar hashing na cibiyar sadarwa (ma'aunin log) daga 2014-2021, yana nuna alaƙar gani a sarari. (b) Sakamakon gwajin iyaka don haɗin kai, yana nuna F-statistic ya wuce babban ƙimar mahimmanci, yana tabbatar da alaƙar dogon lokaci. (c) Zane na kalmar gyara kuskure (ECT) daga samfurin ARDL, yana nuna komawa zuwa sifili, wanda ke tabbatar da tsarin gyaran daidaito.

Teburin Sakamako: Coefficients na Dogon Lokaci na ARDL. Tebur da ke gabatar da ƙididdiga na ƙima. Misali, zai nuna cewa ƙaruwar kashi 1% a farashin cryptocurrency yana da alaƙa da ƙaruwar X% a cikin ƙimar hashing na cibiyar sadarwa a cikin dogon lokaci (mai mahimmanci a kididdiga a matakin 1%). Wani jeri zai nuna karfin ƙimar hashing dangane da kudin hako ma'adinai shine Y%, inda Y < X, yana goyan bayan babban binciken game da bambance-bambancen ƙarfi.

10 Tsarin Bincike: Misali Mai Sauƙi

Yanayi: Nazarin yanayin tsaro na hasashen cryptocurrency na PoW, "ChainX," bayan faduwar farashi na kashi 50%.

Aikace-aikacen Tsarin:

Matsayi na Farko: Farashin ChainX = $100. Ladan tubalan = 10 X-coins. Kudin tsaro = $1000/tubalan. Ƙimar hashing = 10 EH/s. Kudin kai hari (kima) = $500,000.
Girgiza: Rushewar kasuwa. Farashin ya ragu zuwa $50.
Tasiri Kai Tsaye: Kudin tsaro ya raba biyu zuwa $500/tubalan. Kudin shiga mai hako ma'adinai a cikin kuɗin ƙasa ya ragu kashi 50%.
Amsar Masu Hako Ma'adinai (Gajeren lokaci): Bisa ga binciken karfin ladan na takardar, masu hako ma'adinai suna da amsa sosai ga canje-canjen ladan. Masu hako ma'adinai marasa inganci ($C(H_t) > kudin shiga) sun rufe injuna. Ƙimar hashing na cibiyar sadarwa ta fara raguwa.
Daidaitawa Mai Motsi: Daidaitawar wahala ta jinkirta (misali, kowane makonni 2). A wannan lokacin, sauran masu hako ma'adinai suna da damar yin nasara a tubalan, wani ɓangare na ɓata raguwar kudaden shiga. Tsarin gyaran kuskure na samfurin ARDL zai ɗauki wannan daidaitawa zuwa sabon ƙimar hashing na daidaito.
Sabon Daidaito (Dogon lokaci): Ƙimar hashing ta zauna a ƙananan matakin, a ce 6 EH/s. An sake ƙididdige kudin kai hari bisa sabon, ƙananan kudin tsaro da yuwuwar ƙananan kudin samun ƙimar hashing, yanzu an kiyasta shi da $200,000. Tsaron ChainX ya ragu sosai saboda wani lamari na kasuwa.
Madauki: Ƙananan ƙimar hashing da ƙarin damuwa game da tsaro ana iya ba da rahoto, yana rage amincewar mai amfani/mai haɓakawa, yana iya amfani da ƙarin matsi na ƙasa akan farashi, yana kwatanta madauki mai canzawa.

11 Ayyuka na Gaba & Hanyoyin Bincike

Tattalin Arzikin Tsaro na Proof-of-Stake (PoS): Yin amfani da irin wannan tsarin ga hanyoyin sadarwa na PoS. Anan, "kudin tsaro" shine ƙimar kuɗin ƙasa na kadarorin da aka yi amfani da su (da ladan amfani). Haɗin kai mai yiwuwa ya haɗa da yawan amfanin mai tabbatarwa, farashin alama, da haɗarin yanke. Bincike zai iya kwatanta karfi da kwanciyar hankali na samfuran tsaro na PoS da PoS.
Binciken Multi-Chain & Gasar Tsaro: Ƙaddamar da samfurin zuwa duniyar da masu hako ma'adinai za su iya canza ƙarfin hashing a tsakanin sarƙoƙin PoW da yawa (misali, Bitcoin, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash). Wannan yana haifar da kasuwar tsaro ta ketare. Ta yaya motsin farashi a cikin sarkar ɗaya ke tasiri tsaron wani?
Ƙirar Tasirin Tsarin Mulki: Yin amfani da tsarin don kwaikwayi tasirin yuwuwar ƙa'idodi (misali, harajin carbon akan hako ma'adinai, harajin ma'amala) akan matakan daidaiton tsaro na manyan tubalan.
Hasashen Kudaden Tsaro: Haɓaka samfuran hasashe don kudaden tsaro bisa ga alamomin tattalin arzikin duniya, farashin makamashi, da ma'auni na kan sarkar, suna taimakawa wajen tantance haɗari don amfani da hukumomi.
Samfuran Yarjejeniya na Hybrid: Binciken tattalin arzikin tsaro na sabbin samfuran haɗaka waɗanda suka haɗu da PoW da PoS, da nufin ƙirƙirar ƙarin kudaden tsaro masu kwanciyar hankali waɗanda ba su dogara da tsantsar canjin farashin kadarori ba.

12 Nassoshi

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